Winrate calculator for live tournaments


Do you want to decide should this or that tournament be played on the fly? Will it be profitable or just a waste of time? American tournament and cash regular who earns for a living playing online and live has made full-scale calculator for live players.

We have published an article under the title Is it hard to be a profitable tournament player?, and the conclusions were not very bright. The players who stepped on the hard path of tournament pro should be really good to consistently show profit. Especially if he travels a lot and plays in different cities and countries.

But at the same time if the player is able to visit local poker room/casino or spend minimum of money for travel and living expense – the picture looks much more promising.

Mister dgiharris from 2+2 forums has got a great winrate calculator for live tournaments. Winrate, not ROI.

According to him, one can put results of online poker tournaments and get approximate “profitability” of playing live. But this is not the only way to use it: it’s better to put in the results of live tournaments, let it be very approximate; it’s not a big deal.

How to use calculator

You can download the calculator here:

The download is needed (click «Download») and the calculator is used in Excel. In this case it would work correctly.

Most of the people need just the first tab: Winrate.

Here is how you use it:


Here is what dgiharris himself tells about it:

 “Winrate calculator is a rather difficult algorithm…

It works on two levels:

Level 1

For those who wants quickly put data and get the result (there are going to be 95% of those), tab Winrate is the only one required. You put data into grey cells (unprotected from changes) and you get your theoretical winrate.

Level 2

More advanced users and players who are willing to understand the logics, all the mechanics and formula… those can read what’s written in red color in cells, look at all the cells and study Assumptions and Formulas section. This way you’ll understand how the calculator works.

I tried to make everything very simple. Enter your data, tournament data (number of players, buy-in, blind levels, e.g.), I would add pull-down menus (opening when one clicks on a cell). And that’s it – winrate is going to show at the bottom of the first tab.

There is an approximate table of payments and tournament duration (on the same Winrate tab) to the right from calculator.

The calculator is universal and is good for regular tournaments with 20 minutes blinds as well as for WSOP $1.5k, WPT $4k, WSOP $10k...


Just try, make experiments and you’ll probably come to a conclusion that in most cases local tournaments of $100-$200 don’t worth our time unless you absolutely crush them: ITM from 20% and Top-3 from 25%.

Most players will realize that winrate of cash games two, three or four times higher than in chip tournaments.

This model also shows how tournament winrate depends on changes. Two percent change may negatively affect long distance results. This means you should be really good in long-term results as every percent counts in tournaments".

More interesting and useful articles from the world of poker you can read in our blog. Also search for poker clubs in the country or city, get to know about upcoming poker tournaments or cash games at portal.

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